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Geek Culture / Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs)

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Mnemonix
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 04:08
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I saw a UFO which I subsequently discovered to be an aeroplane.

It contained passengers and coffee and fuel, but most likely no extra-terrestrials. It had 17 terrestrials on board, but no extras were possible because it was only a small plane and all of the seats were taken.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 04:10
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Quote: "And you can't just say "with enough time" and it will all make sense. With enough time will tornados on a distant planet fully form a PC? No."


We have a fully formed planet, orbitting around a fully formed sun, all orbitting in a galaxy, which is whizzing around with billions of other galaxies in the universe.

Maybe it's just me, but I think the universe is way more complex than a PC

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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 04:18
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How would that be mathematically impossible? All you really need is water and everything else will take shape after that. Water isn't an uncommon compound, it's found in 25% of planets we investigated it for (earth+mars). I think it is extremely highly probable that life exists outside of earth. The universe is huge. HUGE! HUGE!!!

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Agent Dink
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 04:31 Edited at: 17th Apr 2008 04:31
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Quote: "Maybe it's just me, but I think the universe is way more complex than a PC "


Thus making any sort of evolution / big bang style theory that much less believable.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 04:37
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Not really. If you start with something simple, apply a simple process to it and give it enough time you will get something complex, kinda like a fractal.

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Jeku
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 07:25 Edited at: 17th Apr 2008 07:27
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Quote: "How would that be mathematically impossible? All you really need is water and everything else will take shape after that. Water isn't an uncommon compound, it's found in 25% of planets we investigated it for (earth+mars). I think it is extremely highly probable that life exists outside of earth. The universe is huge. HUGE! HUGE!!!"


Huge assumptions there. I couldn't care less if 25% of planets have water. Water by itself != life. All I'm saying is to make a leap from nothing to something is like throwing around dirt and having a 52" TV appear. If you threw around dirt for 5 billion years you will probably agree that a simple wind up clock won't appear, and a cell is MUCH more complicated. I understand how some people can imagine water + billions of years = a cell, but that part of history is amazingly glossed over in scientific textbooks for a reason Scientists don't have a clue how *that* part happened.

Now imagine this miracle happening on other planets, much less *thousands* of them, just because there's water? You need to do some more explaining to convince me there.

Forget evolution, as that's against the AUP to discuss. What I'm talking about is accidental life happening not on Earth, but on thousands of other planets.


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sp3ng
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 09:42
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i saw a program on abc a while ago that had a section regarding a new discovery on (i think it was) mars, the discovery was that there was a gas that was leaking to the surface and they were really pondering about where it was coming from and what was creating it.


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Super Nova
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 09:51
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... I cant wait until there is undeniable truth that there is life outside earth... but that may still not be enough...

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 12:30 Edited at: 17th Apr 2008 12:36
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Quote: "If you threw around dirt for 5 billion years you will probably agree that a simple wind up clock won't appear"

Just wanted to point out that this reminded me of 'The Watchmaker' vs 'The Blind Watchmaker' analogies, but I probably shouldn't go into that.

I forget him name, but some scientist once conducted an experiment where he got some water and other elements that you find on Earth and added some electricity (representative of lightning), and he ended up with amino acids, which are needed for life. It was a very simple experiment. All the ingredients were there, and all they needed was a little shock to get them going.


[edit]

Even better. The Miller-Urey experiment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller-Urey_experiment found that in the basic experiment the results were 10-15% of organic compounds, and 2-3% for amino acids.

Remember, this is just involving water, hydrogen, ammonia and methane, all of which are common in the universe.

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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:03
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@Jeku
Like someone else said, compared to earth we have been here a fraction of a second. Other races could have started sooner. Maybe they did take longer to develop because they didn't have the luck we did, but they certainly had time. Besides, our scientists can't explain much because humans aren't that smart yet. Give them a couple hundred years.

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:16
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Hello, just to clarify, I do think that there is probably life elsewhere in the universe, intelligent life even, but it is not certain, or likely, just because there are billions of planets.

I think that there is life out there mainly based on a leap of faith that...

1. Conditions vary randomly across the universe (big assumption)
2. Amino acids can be formed by commonly occurring reactions (not such a huge assumption, we can make them in reactions on Earth - by firing lightning through certain gases - we don't know how common such situations are across the universe; supposedly quite)

One important thing about probability that everyone forgets when discussing the universe etc, is that you can't 'undo' one result to infer something about the variable.

Some people say stuff like - the chance of the universe developing as it has are 1 in 10248912478012740912784952178918570247209124, therefore - God.

CR had a sig once that was like, chance of 7/7 attacks happening - 1 in 12401278094712047120 therefore, conspiracy.

YOU JUST CAN'T DO THAT.

It's like getting 100 decks of cards, shuffling them, dealing them out and getting some order.

OMG!!! What are the chances of getting that exact order!!! Like 1 in 102193021589125858901258125!!! Must be a set up! We could play for a million years and never get that order again! OMG New World Order ownz teh cards. It makes so much sense now...

Or how about a machine that produces a random number between 0 and 1. What are the chances of getting any specific number? Zero. If you run the machine, will you get out a number? YES.

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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:18
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Even at that rate, there are plenty of planets to fill that ratio with plenty of species.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:27
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Quote: "therefore - God"

Please don't bring that up

The chances that the universe ending up the way it did against the chances of 102758394758888554, w/e, are really small, but it could have easily ended up a different, possibly better for life.

Anyway, I do agree that the chances of Earth-like life out there are probably kinda small, and by that I mean having DNA and genes, etc. I firmly believe that you can achieve the ability to eat and reproduce without having an Earth-like scenario.

If you can imagine an alien breed that isn't like Earth's, but, they could reproduce. If their offspring inherit triats from their parents then they will slowly develop to suit their surroundings.

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:36
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Ok nevermind you don't understand.

Quote: "The chances that the universe ending up the way it did against the chances of 102758394758888554, w/e, are really small"


This is exactly what you can't do.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:40
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How? With such a large number, the chances are really small, aren't they?

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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:47
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Yes. Indeed. The Alien race may not need oxygen like we need, or even an atmosphere. They will work totally different than our bodies do.

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:54
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Basically, you can't make any estimation of how likely or unlikely an event is, based solely on that fact that it happened.

Say there are a hundred trillion, trillion planets in the universe. The chance of life developing on a planet might be one in a trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, so we would not expect to find it anywhere else.

We just don't know, given only the evidence that life has developed here on Earth.

---

One last time, this is the error people make:

- Something with a tiny, tiny, tiny probability of happening, happens.
- Therefore, surely, there must have been some factor that forced it to be more likely, otherwise how could it have happened?

---

Basically, because life developed on Earth, people say - the chances of this happening are essentially zero, I mean, just unfathomably unlikely - so there must be some explanation:
- Some deity made us
- Life is unlikely, but the universe is so vast that it must develop somewhere, because there are so many opportunities for it...

The point is, you don't need to justify the small chance in any way.

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Grandma
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:56
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@ Chris K

I'm not sure what you mean. Isn't it only common sense to assume the most likely scenario to be the correct one? I'm not saying 7/7 was staged, but if you have the math saying one is far more likely than the other then I usually tend to believe the most likely one. In this case I believe there's life outside our pathetic solar system, it isn't certain, no, But I dare say it's likely.

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 13:59
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OK, go and get a pack of cards. Shuffle it. Deal it out. Write down the order.

What is the chance of this exact order coming out?

It is very, very unlikely. About 1 in a 1,000,000,000 or something.

So which more likely, that this impossible (one in a billion) event just randomly happened, or that the New World Order fixed your pack of cards to produce this exact pattern?

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Grandma
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:06 Edited at: 17th Apr 2008 14:07
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I think the New World Order has tampered with my deck of cards somehow, again...

Yes, I got what you meant from your second-last post. I didn't see it until I posted.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:07 Edited at: 17th Apr 2008 14:10
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Chris K,

That's what I'm saying. You may say that the chances of Earth-like life is "unfathomably unlikely", and I agree, it is, because the chances that you will see anything even remotely similar elsewhere are extremely small. It happened on Earth because of the conditions suited for this kind of life. I am open minded enough to believe that elsewhere there are conditions suited for a different kind of life, whether it be very similar to Earth's or completely different.

I disagree with the fact that all life needs Carbon, or even any of the elements and compounds found on Earth. I'm sure it's possible to develop its own way, maybe not even needed cells.

[edit]

Damn, people are posting too quickly for me.

Just because something came out the way it did against massive odds doesn't mean that it was staged, because the odds are exactly the same that it could come out completely different.

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:12
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Yah, it's also important to remember it isn't evidence the other way.

ie. just because unlikely stuff can happen, that isn't evidence that 7/7 was genuine or that God doesn't exist.

There is lots of genuine evidence either way in these matters I imagine.

[/flirting with lock]

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:13
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@ Zotoaster

Do you know what the chance of any kind of life developing on a random planet is?

Unless you know that, (which you don't) then you can't be sure that the number of planets in the universe massively out weighs it.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:20
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Chris K,

You don't know it either, do you can't be sure that life is infact that unlikely.

[off topic]

Just making sure that there's no great tension here eh? Nothing wrong with a little debate

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:21
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I KNOW!!
I am not saying that it is unlikely!

I am saying, we don't know because we don't have enough evidence.

You're saying it is likely. You don't know that.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:25
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Quote: "You're saying it is likely. You don't know that."


Well, it's a firm belief of mine And compared to some beliefs I think it's quite a bit more realistic.. I won't go any further into that, heheheh.

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Pus In Boots
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 14:56
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Will everyone stop going on about "mathmatical probability"? You can't assume life will be out there based solely on the number of potential planets. All that is needed is a living single cell organism. It can then evolve to suit it's environment. It may grow smarter, it may not. If there is no oxygen on the planet, then other elements or compounds may enable it to live and it will evolve accordingly. Look at fish. They can't breathe oxygen, so they grew gills. Most importantly, cell organisms can potentially reach any planet. How they get there is unbeknownst to me- perhaps they were on all planets to begin with, but many died out quickly because of the environment, or inability to adapt. However you spin it, chemicals and elements basically ARE what every planet is made of, so what are the odds of cell organisms not existing there as well? Also, you can't base the decision of whether or not there is sentient life in the galaxy on the planets in our solar system. Why would there be life on Mars? Try looking several galaxies further and stop being so narrow-minded.

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Chris K
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 15:03
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Quote: "Look at fish. They can't breathe oxygen"


Sweet science.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 15:08
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Sometimes I wonder which stance Chris employs

Anyway, what were we talking about again? Oh right, UFOs. Lol.

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Chenak
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 15:26
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http://www.hawking.org.uk/lectures/life.html

I found this interesting. Especially the conclusions

I'm not gonna bother debating because some people won't consider it as a viable theory. Even if they retrieve real evidence some still won't consider it real.

Anyway the phoenix mission should give some results in a few years, hopefully some conclusive evidence will be found, although it will be difficult to prove whether the results were not contaminated.
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Zotoaster
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 15:31
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This may take a while to read, but it seems interesting.

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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 17th Apr 2008 22:35
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I might read it sometime.

Chris, you're posts are confusing me. Are you trying to tell us that math isnt a way to say it could happen, but then you use your own probability to prove it couldn't? It makes my head hurt.

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Jeku
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 03:30
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Quote: "I forget him name, but some scientist once conducted an experiment where he got some water and other elements that you find on Earth and added some electricity (representative of lightning), and he ended up with amino acids, which are needed for life. It was a very simple experiment. All the ingredients were there, and all they needed was a little shock to get them going."


That means absolutely nothing to me. There has never been a scientist who created life by mixing natural ingredients and adding electricity. If you're bored read up on the massive complexities inside a single cell, and you will know what I mean To suggest that all it takes to create a cell from nothing is a few ingredients and a "little shock to get them going" made me literally laugh out loud.


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Benjamin
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 03:33
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Quote: "To suggest that all it takes to create a cell from nothing is a few ingredients and a "little shock to get them going" made me literally laugh out loud."

You'd better read it again then.

Quote: "and he ended up with amino acids, which are needed for life"


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dark coder
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 03:51
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What's there to argue? We all know that life forms when amino acids combine, did you not watch when Q took Picard back 3.5 billion years to the creation of life on Earth in the TNG episode All Good Things?

Besides how can you say life is mathematically impossible or close to impossible to be created? We haven't even been to any extrasolar planets let alone many in our solar system, we have no clue about what kind of life can be formed, only speculations as to what can, for all we know it's amazingly common.

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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 04:09
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Which I believe it is.

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Agent Dink
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 04:43
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Quote: "and he ended up with amino acids, which are needed for life"


On top of amino acids, what else is needed for life?

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 12:36 Edited at: 18th Apr 2008 12:37
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Quote: "On top of amino acids, what else is needed for life?"

Amino acids are needed for Earth-life I can't stress enough that it's unlikely that life elsewhere would emerge the same way ours did.

Quote: "There has never been a scientist who created life by mixing natural ingredients and adding electricity."

That's because scientists (nevermind humans) don't live that long.

[edit]

Just to point out - if something as fundamental to life such as amino acids can be formed with natural elements under natural conditions (and so easily), then I here-by disagree with all above posts about the low probability of life.

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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 13:01
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I dont care about this whole amino acids thing, it's how we formed, so what. They could form differently. ...Closed minded humans... *mumbles to self*

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Grandma
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 14:23 Edited at: 18th Apr 2008 14:23
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Quote: "They could form differently. ...Closed minded humans..."


Yah, puny humans! Let's go back to our planet Zeke. These pathetic bad-excuse-for-a-life-form are made from amino acids....AAHAHHAHAA. WE come from raspberry juice.

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Zotoaster
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 15:02
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AND RASBERRY JUICE COMES FROM AMINO ACIDS!!

/caps

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Grandma
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 15:20
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Not from where I originate.

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Luciferia
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 18:36 Edited at: 18th Apr 2008 22:04
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Everyone: read the book Sphere by Michael Crichton.

If you look that the chances of life existing in the first place it narrows it down to a tiny fraction. If you look at the chances that it ever evolves into multi-cellular life forms instead of simple single celled ones then we are looking at a pathetically small fraction. And then you can look at the chance that they are sentient, intelligent beings now we are looking at fractions so small that we can't comprehend them. But if we do ever come across Aliens then you have to look at the problems of:
1: Distance between us and them. They will be huge and untraversable untill we invent some hyperspace-esque way of travelling.
2: As discussed in Sphere, there is the biological problem. They would have grown on a different world. there is no telling what they might do. For example they could have evolved to breathe in nitrogen and exhale cyanide or they - to speak - could emmit an high energy sound wave which could shatter our bones.
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Zotoaster
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 18:55
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Luciferia,

We have discussed most of this. A lot of the debate here was about how we can't know the chances of alien existance due to our lack of exploration. And as I and many other forumers have pointed out, the type of life might be completely different to Earth's type, thus increases the chances.

I recommend you all look up the Drake Equation if you already don't know about it. It is a very simple equation made to estimate the existance of intelligent life which we could get into contact with. There are so many variables to it that need prediction that the results vary greatly, from 23 possibly planets to 50,000, etc.

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Chris K
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 18:59
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Zotoaster
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 19:18
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I didn't see the need for that Chris K I think the equation makes perfect sense, all we need now is to fill in the variables that we don't know yet.

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Diggsey
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 19:24
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Actually, I think that the chance that there is another kind of life in our solar system is likely, but that depends on how you define life. There is a huge amount of 'stuff' that humans cannot even begin to comprehend yet, and life could easily be made up of this 'stuff'. I think it is funny that people look for cells when looking for life. If there is other life, don't you think it is extremely likely to be like nothing we have ever even imagined before??? Life could be unimaginably small, being made up of particles that we have not even discovered yet. It could also be extremely large, this whole universe being too small to see. How can you be ABSOLUTELY sure that anything is not alive? There could be undetectable reactions going on that cause the thing to think even if it is not aware of us or we of it. It could for example think many times slower than us, and for it, we would be too fast to detect. We DO know that our universe is extremely large, and extremely complex, and made up of almost infinitely small particles. If you think about all of that, does it not seem very likely that there is life elsewhere, even if it is of an entirely different type to our own!

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Keo C
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 19:45 Edited at: 18th Apr 2008 19:45
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Quote: "Actually, I think that the chance that there is another kind of life in our solar system is likely, but that depends on how you define life. There is a huge amount of 'stuff' that humans cannot even begin to comprehend yet, and life could easily be made up of this 'stuff'....."

Well put.


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Jeku
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 22:15 Edited at: 18th Apr 2008 22:18
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Quote: "Just to point out - if something as fundamental to life such as amino acids can be formed with natural elements under natural conditions (and so easily), then I here-by disagree with all above posts about the low probability of life."


Care to explain your idea of how big a step between amino acid and one, single cell is? I'd love to know.

It's easy to just assume that once you have amino acides then logically a cell will just magically follow Until you know exactly what a single cell is made up of, and the immense complexity of the machines within a single cell, then really you don't know anything.

I'm not disagreeing that there could be life elsewhere. Hey, if we're here, then why not?

I am disagreeing with your assumption of how easy the situation for life to appear from *nowhere* is, and how close scientists are from creating life. Mankind hasn't come *close*.


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SunnyKatt
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Posted: 18th Apr 2008 22:37
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The drake equation owns.

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