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Geek Culture / weird coincidence

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Green Gandalf
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Playing: Malevolence:Sword of Ahkranox, Skyrim, Civ6.
Posted: 6th Nov 2009 11:54
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I've just decided it was about time I updated my copy of IanM's indispensable Matrix1 dlls on my laptop. After I'd downloaded the files, out of curiousity I checked the date I last downloaded them onto this machine - 6th November 2008.
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NeX the Fairly Fast Ferret
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 12:02
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I'm no maths whizz - is this a 1 in 365 chance or a 1 in 365^2 chance? I've got a feeling it's the latter as there are two dates to compare.

Athlon64 2.7gHz->OC 3.9gHz, 31C, MSi 9500GT->OC 1gHz core/2gHz memory, 48C, 4Gb DDR2 667, 500Gb Seagate + 80Gb Maxtor + 40Gb Maxtor = 620Gb, XP Home
Air cooled, total cost £160
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demons breath
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 13:23 Edited at: 6th Nov 2009 13:25
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1 in 366 I think - last year was a leap year.

It depends on how you look at it.

On the one hand, given that you downloaded the dlls today, the chance of you having downloaded it at that time last year is 1 in 366. Or 1 in 365, depending on which way you approach it (it would be this if you took "given that you downloaded...")

Obviously external factors could be an influence. For example, are you using last years planner? Because if both years you opened it to find a note saying "download IanM's Matrix dlls" then that might rule a little of the mystery and coincidence out of the situation.

EDIT: Just to clarify, the reason it's only 1 in 365 is that:
You download the dll twice in seperate years. This is a given fact beforehand.
The first year, the chances of you downloading it on any day is 365 in 365 as it doesn't matter what day you dl it on. Therefore this is the same as one in one, so when you multiply it by the probability of getting it next year, it's still just 1 in 365.

I hate stats. It seems to have wormed it's way into my brain.

"The fools may crash down upon us in thunderous waves, but we shall Jeku slap them back from whence they came"
-BiggAdd Oct 28th 2009
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Fallout
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 13:26
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De ja vu??? Isn't that a sign of a glitch in the Matrix DLLs??!?

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Green Gandalf
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 14:06
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I'd say it's 1 in 365 - the 12 month period in question didn't include the extra day.

Quote: "Isn't that a sign of a glitch in the Matrix DLLs??!?"


More likely a glitch at the user end of things. Why upgrade them only once a year?
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dark coder
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 14:08
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It's not 1 in 355 or 356, if I download a file I'm not going to download it again on the whim that it may have changed the next day, thus the odds of it being exactly a year's gap is far lower, and it's not likely something you can just calculate from this information alone, there are too many variables. Unless you're trying to suggest GG is an android and specifically sets the next time he'll check for updates between now and a year's time.

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demons breath
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 14:13
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Quote: "It's not 1 in 355 or 356"

Well obviously not... there are 365/366 days in a year

But no I wasn't saying that this was exactly right, just that it was an approximation. Obviously there were more variables to consider, but without intricate examination of GG's lifestyle, the calendars for these years, thread posts or anything which may have prompted recollection and months of work, which to be honest I'm not exactly ready to dedicate, then given that he downloaded it once in 2008 and once in 2009, 1 in 365 is a pretty good approximation.

"The fools may crash down upon us in thunderous waves, but we shall Jeku slap them back from whence they came"
-BiggAdd Oct 28th 2009
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NeX the Fairly Fast Ferret
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 14:13
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Quote: "if I download a file I'm not going to download it again on the whim that it may have changed the next day"


I would if it had a major bug...

Damnit, this is a lot of variables.

Athlon64 2.7gHz->OC 3.9gHz, 31C, MSi 9500GT->OC 1gHz core/2gHz memory, 48C, 4Gb DDR2 667, 500Gb Seagate + 80Gb Maxtor + 40Gb Maxtor = 620Gb, XP Home
Air cooled, total cost £160
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Green Gandalf
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Posted: 6th Nov 2009 15:41
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This is beginning to get technical.

As DC says, 1 in 365 is a gross simplification - but in the absence of better information it's hard to give a specific alternative as demons breath suggests.

As Nex the Fairly Fast Ferret implies, we usually upgrade something when we need to. In the present case I wanted a sort routine for a dungeon creation problem I was playing with. I looked at IanM's help file because I knew he'd included some - but it wasn't there. Hence the upgrade.

Now, I wonder when I last upgraded the plugin on my PC.
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