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Geek Culture / A "low chance of that happening" question

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Kryogenik
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 17:41
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This question has been keeping me up at night, see if you guys can help me out. Anyway, take the following. A guy makes a program that writes random sound and visual data each frame to a dvd. If it goes 30 frames a second for 23 minutes or so, what are the chances(percent or whatever) it will come out as an episode of the colbert report, or something? Assume its a blu-ray disc with 1080p full hd and 7.1 surround sound. I'm not sure how you would figure this out, but it is geek culture I don't mean dvd menus or anything, just the actual episode. Thanks in advance.

Codesurge is so awsome, thanks Hyrichter.
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Silvester
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 17:46
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Well, there's already one in a million chance the first PIXEL will even be right.. And the second one will be that million multiplied by another million, so there's barely any chance of such a thing happening, for every pixel to be right you'd have to multiply the chance it might happen by another million or so... So to get 3 pixels right you've got like a one to a three million chance or so?

Note that this is not based on the actual amount of pixels on the film, but a rough speculation of how to calculate such a thing.


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xplosys
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 17:51
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Since you're already up at night, why don't you give it a shot and let us know how it turns out. It couldn't be any more meaningless than the question itself.

Brian.

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Diru
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 18:02
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1080p = 1920px * 1080px = 2073600 ~ 2*10^6 pixels on screen
256^3 = 16777216 ~ 1.6*10^7 possible values for each pixel

So there's a 1/(1.6*10^7) chance of one pixel being correct.
A (1/(1.6*10^7))^2*10^6 chance of a single frame being correct.

At 30 FPS, there is a ((1/(1.6*10^7))^2*10^6)^30 of a second being correct.

23 minutes = 60*23 = 1380 seconds

(((1/(1.6*10^7))^2*10^6)^30)^1380 of the whole episode having the correct frames.

I don't know much about sound to attempt that. If my maths is wrong could someone please correct me
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NeX the Fairly Fast Ferret
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 18:14
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44100 samples/sec @ 16-bit (65536 possible positions) on Stereo.

44100x65536x2 per second. What's that?

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Fallout
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 19:43
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So overall, a good chance!

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Diru
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 19:48
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44100*65536*2 = 5780275200 ~ 5.8*10^9
5.8*10^9*1380 = 8*10^12

So a 1 in 8*10^12 chance of the sound being correct?

So overall:

((((1/(1.6*10^7))^2*10^6)^30)^1380)^8*10^12

I'm probably wrong though.
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AndrewT
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 20:26
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Quote: "So a 1 in 8*10^12 chance of the sound being correct?"


Per second.

i like orange
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NeX the Fairly Fast Ferret
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 20:37
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Ah, yes, but he's already evaluating the video per second so wouldn't that work with the audio per second?

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Maindric
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 20:38
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You also have that much of a chance of getting a Family guy episode or anything else in video.

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Eddie Gordo
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 20:54
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96-kHz 32-bit is the going to be the maximum audio specs capable of blu-ray with 8 channels... just so you know...

~Cyrano De Bergerac~
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Cash Curtis II
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 21:26
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Approximately 0. That's been rounded up. You should get a real hobby.


Download the game!
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Indicium
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 23:18
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@Cash Curtis
just LOL

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DJ Almix
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Posted: 6th Jan 2010 23:33
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I would say infinite.

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Indicium
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 01:09
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c'mon, this is just like saying if we made dbpro pick a random color for each pixel in each frame for 30 frames a second would i turn into a movie, of course it wouldn't, no matter what the chances are, It's still impossible.

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NeX the Fairly Fast Ferret
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 01:11
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IMPROBABLE.

Though in the case of a computer doing it, are there any good enough randomizers out there that could actually make enough data for it not to be the same thing over and over again?

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ionstream
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 01:49
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This question is difficult to answer because audio isn't completely discreet (at least, recognizing it as an audio from the Colbert Report is not). But lets take a look at a hypothetical, to get things in perspective.

Lets say for simplicity's sake, a sample of audio is stored as a 2-byte word (the standard might be 4, I'm not sure). This means there are 2^16, or 65536 possibilities for that sample to be. So the odds of getting the first sample right are 1 in 65536. The odds of getting the first two samples right is 1 in 65536 squared, or 1 in 4,294,967,296.

I'm not sure what format Colbert is in, but a show on TV for a half hour has about 22 minutes of actual content (the rest being commercials), or 1320 seconds. A mono episode might be sampled at 44000hz, having a total of 1320*44000 samples of audio in the entire episode, which is 58,080,000.

So if getting the first 2 samples right is 1/65536^2, then getting all 58,080,000 samples correct is 1 in 65536^58080000. Python went out of memory when trying to calculate this number.

Not so good!

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Indicium
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 02:20
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Also known as impossible. Face it, it would NEVER happen, even if you did it trillions of times, you just wouldn't get an actual epidsode from it.

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dark coder
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 06:28
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Quote: "Also known as impossible."


No. Also, there do exist 'truly random' RNGs so it's possible, just improbable as mentioned earlier, if you think it's impossible then No.

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Happy Cheesecake
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 06:41
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Yes, it could happen. But it won't. Ever. Nobody will do it and nothing's going to make it happen now, later, or far into the future. Nobody will have the motivation, therefore the possibility of it happening is 0. Impossible.

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Veron
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 08:22
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Quote: "Yes, it could happen."


Quote: "Impossible."


Nice contradiction.

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Happy Cheesecake
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 08:26
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Fine then, let me rephrase that for your tastes.

Yes, it could happen. But it won't. Ever. Nobody will do it and nothing's going to make it happen now, later, or far into the future. Nobody will have the motivation, therefore the possibility of it happening is 0.

Happy?

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Veron
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 08:50
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Not really, no, because somebody could have the motivation. You can't speak for 7 billion people on this Earth. Sure, it's extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

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dark coder
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 09:36
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Quote: "Yes, it could happen."

Quote: "therefore the possibility of it happening is 0."


Cognitive dissonance?

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Phaelax
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 10:38 Edited at: 7th Jan 2010 10:42
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There are 16.7 million possible pixel colors. So you have a 1 in 16.7 million chance of getting the first pixel in the first frame correct.

The probability that you'll get 2 pixels correct is 16.7^2(millions).

Full HD resolution is 1920x1080, or 2,073,600 pixels. So technically, your chance is getting just 1 frame correct in your video is:

16.7(million)^2073600 = "windows cannot calculate"

That's just 1 single frame. At 30 frames per second for 23 minutes would be:

Chance of 1 frame: 16,700,000^2,073,600
30fps for 23min: 30*(23*60) = 41,400 frames

1 in (16,700,000^2,073,600)^41,400 = 16,700,000^85,847,040,000

So theoretically, yes it's possible (mind you this is video only), but I doubt even a super computer could calculate fast enough to give you a solution within a year.

How about a compressed version of the show, let's say 256 colors at 320x240 and 24fps. And we'll only calculate a 5 minute preview.

(256^76,800)^[24*(5*60)] = 256^552,960,000

Quote: "This question has been keeping me up at night,"

I assure you I won't be losing any sleep over this.


"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" ~ Arthur C. Clarke
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Dazzag
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 11:01
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Hasn't this already been done in a previous thread? Think it got to the level of calculating the amount of diskspace you would require for a single image, not to mention the amount of time you would need to check each frame to see if it is what you want or a HAL type level of program to check things for you.

So nah, no chance of being kept awake. I do remember thinking the same thing as a kid around 1983, staying awake, doing the sums, and realising (even at the time on my extemely limited Spectrum 48k) that it was impossible, before going back to sleep.

Cheers

I am 99% probably lying in bed right now... so don't blame me for crappy typing
Current fave quote : "She was like a candle in the wind.... unreliable...."
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Kryogenik
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 21:26
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"Its impossible" "It could happen" "I won't be losing sleep"
I knew stuff like this would happen its like mentioning goto's(don't get into one of those talks). And plus, I'm not even in high school yet, and when I said keeping me up at night, I meant I thought it would be cool to know that sometimes. Its not like I wouldn't fall asleep until 4 because of a question like this. Thanks for the answers though, I thought I'd get nothing but flames.

Codesurge is so awesome, thanks Hyrichter.
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Takar
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Posted: 7th Jan 2010 22:22
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The real question here is "Who cares?"
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demons breath
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Posted: 8th Jan 2010 00:17
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You can tell this is a computer geek forum though - a very digital take on the old monkeys/works of shakespeare thing...

I must side with all the people here who have so aptly demonstrated a complete lack of caring, in all their varied, special little ways.

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Dazzag
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Posted: 8th Jan 2010 08:40 Edited at: 8th Jan 2010 08:43
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Golly, this one went quite nicely compared to the last one if I remember rightly...

Quote: "I knew stuff like this would happen its like mentioning goto's"
Actually the main part of one of our systems is a Unix based language (normally running on IBMs and DGs in our case) that we have used for over 20 years (although obviously new versions come out each year or so), and after a lot of testing GOTOs (in this language at least) were found to be the fastest loop. When it comes to tight loops on massive amounts of data (say overnight MIS extracts that need to process double figure GBs of data and produce files in the GBs) then they are mandatory and you basically fail QA in some circumstances if you don't use them. An old example had a report taking 10 hours to run that was reduced to just over 9 hours with the use of GOTOs. Doesn't sound so amazing but when you are talking about seriously expensive systems with loads of tasks going on overnight (especially when you are limited to single figure amount of processors) then every second counts with upgrades in hardware costing a load of money (both for the hardware/software and the support costs)

Quote: "I must side with all the people here who have so aptly demonstrated a complete lack of caring, in all their varied, special little ways"
I'll make a will to leave my house to the "make any image ever" charity.

Cheers

Ps. If it makes you feel any better the same thought really did keep me awake at night for a little while as a kid. Maths stuff normally did. Such as the thought "How many seconds old am I?". No sleep till I worked it out...

I am 99% probably lying in bed right now... so don't blame me for crappy typing
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Phaelax
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Quote: "After the group had worked for 42,162,500,000 billion billion monkey-years [aug.2004], one of the "monkeys" typed, “VALENTINE. Cease toIdor:eFLP0FRjWK78aXzVOwm)-‘;8.t" The first 19 letters of this sequence can be found in "The Two Gentlemen of Verona". Other teams have reproduced 18 characters from "Timon of Athens", 17 from "Troilus and Cressida", and 16 from "Richard II"."


I stand corrected, we do have computers able to calculate the answers. Though they never say how long in "human-years" the simulation ran.

billion billion monkey-years, lol


"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" ~ Arthur C. Clarke
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Jeku
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Posted: 10th Jan 2010 00:00
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Quote: "IMPROBABLE.

Though in the case of a computer doing it, are there any good enough randomizers out there that could actually make enough data for it not to be the same thing over and over again?"


There's a an actual mathematical ratio where something moves from possible to impossible, and this has crossed into the impossible.


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Indicium
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Posted: 10th Jan 2010 03:25
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This is just like saying if my two year old sister bashed my keyboard for half an hour, would it be the code for the next call of duty? No.

Theres like 1/125 chance of the first key hit being s, so thats (1/125)^7 chance of the first line being 'sync on'.

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