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Geek Culture / [Speculative Crazy Talk] Bleak Future For PC Users

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nonZero
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 00:05
I saw a video demonstrating Chrome OS recently and it got me thinking about a conspiracy I thought up ages ago. Lots of it is far-fetched, admittedly, but it has a certain logical progression to it. Anyways, I'm shoving it here because I think it's both fun and scary at the same time and I'd love to hear what others think. Feel free to speculate further or point out flaws in this "plot" but please don't call me a conspiracy nut because this is speculative which means I believe it's possible, not inevitable.

I have been going on about how cloud computing will snatch our freedom from us and I still believe so. Chrome OS is the beginning of the end. Once internet speeds reach the required level, there will be no need for native hardware capable of anything other than rendering flat images at 60 fps. The actual 3D rendering of games or visual effects of editing software or even rendering of super hd movies could be done server-side. Oh yes, your machine's firmware need only be a very basic thing designed to connect to the wired. Your true OS and all your software could be installed server side. Eventually there would be no need to save documents locally either since you could back them up on filehosting sites. Yes everything in a cloud. And completely accessible to top-level government people around the globe. Just imagine how easily they could shut you down? So you'd best not speak out against them.
So how would this happen? Simple, they'll use the guise of anti-piracy and simply stop publishing locally-installable stuff (it's a good justification and already we are seeing these trends in software). You work online or you don't work. And with the internet infrastructure we're looking at in the future, connectivity wouldn't be an issue so people would complain about "what if I can't connect?" etc. So what about Linux and ReactOS? Well, if hardware comes pre-built with read-only memory containing basic firmware to connect, how do you install an alternate OS? I suppose by modifying the board and installing mod-chips. That'll work until the OEMs manage to get these mod-chips banned or rather any form of modification banned. Besides, conventional memory won't be available to the general public eventually. Then you'll need a licence for a custom built PC. And a licence for the software it comes with. So maybe you think you can jailbreak the pc and get Linux on it? Lol, think again. All that needs to happen is for an international treaty to be signed in which software developers require a licence to distribute (even free) their software. That's you by the testes!

RedneckRambo
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 01:09
Well, I'm just going to say that I don't see this happening ever. Cloud may become an ever larger part of PC, but it will never be entirely relied. We will always be working offline... At least in our life time as far as I'm concerned. I obviously can't say 100% for sure, anything can happen, but I'm not expecting anything like that to happen and I think the entire world would be surprised if it did.

I>Every single one of you

Have a nice day
Agent Dink
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 01:19
I agree and have had thoughts on this for awhile. I think nonZero is pretty much right. I can easily see this happening within 20 to 30 years time, tops.

http://lossofanonymity.wordpress.com
Libervurto
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 02:15
It will happen. It's extremely easy to market cloud computing: you could make extremely cheap and tiny PC's that barely do anything on their own, it could basically be a single chip. It's also convenient to have everything stored on a central server.

I can imagine a group of activists scavenging for old computer parts, building PC's and launching attacks on the government servers. Now that would be a cool game (but dull film).

Shh... you're pretty.
ionstream
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 02:20
I'm pretty sure that people assume the worst is going to happen, just so they don't look naive if it does. You have no idea if this is going to happen, and if it ever did, cloud computing would be the least of our worries.

mr Handy
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 09:01 Edited at: 5th Jul 2012 11:20
edit: message delete because I did not read first post carefully

«It's the Pony, pony me this, pony me that» — Bronies
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Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 09:24
I should hope this doesn't happen. If it did it would mean gov't sticking it nose into computing business, which it does not need to do. That is stupid. Sadly this could happen. :/
Neuro Fuzzy
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 10:02
As far as something several large businesses will jump on? Yeah, it's definitely going to happen. Banning assembling your own computer without a license? THAT'S crazy talk.

As far as companies requiring constant internet connection, hiding your data from you on their servers, requiring registered hardware (consoles!), and having 100% control over all your online information? Yeah, it's going to get worse xD

Aaron Miller
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 10:28
Chrome OS is not the beginning of the end... That started with DRM and the iPod's completely unusable and cryptic "file system." It evolved into the iPhone and Apple trying to make JailBreaking illegal. Now patent sharks roam the waters looking for tasty rafters trying to make it. (Lodsys or w/e they're called and the indie mobile developers.) 'Course, the sharks are attacking themselves too. (Apple vs. Microsoft vs. Google vs. Oracle vs. Everyone.)

Microsoft requires UEFI secure-boot for Windows 8. Further, for ARM processors, they require OEMs to not allow disabling it. Doesn't paint a pretty picture for GNU/Linux. Ubuntu and Fedora have decided to just buy the necessary certificates for signing though. I suppose that helps keep GNU/Linux around though.

Secure boot isn't the biggest problem though. By making computers more "user friendly" (that is, by removing freedom) users are less inclined to mess with their computer's internals. People who would otherwise become great programmers never have that experience that makes them realize that is what they want to do. (Of course, I'd be considered an extremist for wanting to teach people how to use the terminal before they learn how to use the GUI.) I think the problem is a general lack of education on anything outside of Microsoft Word.

Now that I think about this, maybe it all began with the NES and its "trusted-module." (Not checking names here, and I'm not sure if there was anything before the NES.) You know, the thing that made it so that games had to be approved by Nintendo. Sure, the user was technically able to disable it... by fiddling with the hardware. (Yay! User friendly.) That trend of course continued into modern society... And we all know what happens when someone publishes their findings on the hardware they own. (GeoHotz vs. Sony.)

The information I'm giving is mostly from memory and personal opinion. Read with a grain of salt as I may be incredibly incorrect on many of the things I've mentioned here.

NOTE: Chromebooks have offline storage capability iirc. Not much, but enough for common uses. It's not meant to be a business machine, so you might as well call it a FisherPriceBook.

Rant On Internet Services And Caching {
This is directed towards everyone who's ever even contemplated making an internet streaming service. CACHE THE DATA. Why is it that when I get interrupted by something, and don't have time to pause my video, that going back twelve seconds causes the video stream to have to be reloaded? Wasn't the data JUST there? (Valid excuses: Bloody nose, don't get blood on keyboard/laptop/mouse. Dog is peeing on the bed/couch/other-furniture. Someone called and you missed what just happened. Cat jumps on your keyboard and gets in the way. Kitchen caught fire. -- I've experienced all of those while a video was playing [though, in the case of the kitchen, it was with me playing a video game].) I believe this is because data isn't cached properly. Sometimes, it's faster (and smoother) for me to just download a YouTube video before watching it. Less "buffering" nonsense. On the subject of buffering though, NetFlix sucks. When you first load a video, you can't choose to enter fullscreen mode, or pause a video before it starts playing. (Maybe I just want the video to buffer for a bit before actually playing it...) Then, when it goes to buffer again during playback, on the Wii, it gives a black background. Wtf netflix. Doesn't do that on PC... Also, SilverLight? Really? *Sigh*

I digress. I believe the issue is caching. Why not just begin downloading an AVI/MP4 or some such and stream the AVI/MP4? (Or any container format with whatever codec is suitable.) I know technology is capable of doing that. It's been researched. It's been implemented. In free (libre) software, nonetheless. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the services exist, but they can really improve. A lot. Little things add up and make one big pain. (Maybe I'm the only one who notices them though.)

Okay, with (most) of the rant out of the way... Here's why I mention this: Games will likely begin streaming their media over the internet (mainstream games, no pun intended). I've heard of companies who want to start doing this to reduce disc foot-print and such.
}

Anyway, here's my solution. Buy a bunch of these and hope they never break down. And if they do, that there are updates and better hardware.

Alas, I'm practical. For the price of one of those I got a laptop and a desktop. Desktop: AMD A6 APU 2.9GHz x 4, 4GB DDR3-1600~ RAM, D3D 11 support, three 500GB SATA2 (or was it SATA3? don't remember) HDDs. Laptop: Intel something CPU 1.8GHz x 2, 2GB DDR(2?) RAM, D3D 9.0c (SM3) GPU, 80GB SSD. Each computer takes about ten to thirty seconds to boot. I saw a YouTube video of the Lemote Yeeloong. It took three minutes to boot. No thanks.

Cheers,
Aaron

PS: Feel free to completely dismiss everything I just mentioned. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything.
Thraxas
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 10:53
I guess I'm one of the few who just doesn't care. I'm pretty sure the Government has access to all your data already.

Also I'm pretty sure I'm in the minority of people who think GeoHotz was entirely in the wrong for publishing his findings. I absolutely believe in his right to do what he wants with his system. I don't believe that extends to sharing it with the world.

http://thraxocorp.webs.com/ Visit my totally awesome website: Thraxocorp. It's my own company and I'm totes the CEO.
mr Handy
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 11:26
@Thraxas [text was translated]

In January 2005, Herbert Lee banker from San Francisco on his "Jaguar" hit a person, as a result he died, and fled the scene. But three years later found the offender and sentenced. And the judiciary has helped Google.

During interrogations, Harbert said that there were dents on the car after he "met" on the road with deer. Evidence to the contrary, the police was not and it has almost reached an impasse. Then the detectives began to check the data stored on your computer suspect, and found that Herbert sought to Google information about a crime that is committed.

Request «hit-and-run» gave him a page, which told about the accident. Harbert also sought on the Internet for repair parts car. So the police from the hands of the defendant received all the necessary evidence of his guilt. Lee Harbert was sentenced to three years. Apparently the court was already very lenient, a banker after all ...

And for those who have recently had done something to himself and is now looking at Google, - do not do it. Can the police come.

«It's the Pony, pony me this, pony me that» — Bronies
«I sell apples and apple accessories» — Applejack
Derpy delivers: watch?v=g4Kgz4Us_RI
Quik
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 12:30
Quote: "I'm pretty sure the Government has access to all your data already. "


I wonder how they possibly could...


The result of origin.. Oh and ponies
TheComet
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 13:42
Quote: "I'm pretty sure the Government has access to all your data already."


nahh, I don't think so. Take LINUX for example, how on earth would the Government get hold of your data through that amount of security? ...In Switzerland?

@ nonZero

Your arguments sound plausible in the far future, but one thing just doesn't add up for me. The server would have to have immense processing power in order to get that working. All of the power from every computer in the world would have to be combined to create such a server.

Another thing would be latency, especially in the gaming world. Try playing BF3 with a 200ms delay between input and action. No can do, even if the server is capable of handling something that demanding.

I can see it happening for things like documents (images, text, videos etc.) but not for programs. They need to run locally.

TheComet

Agent Dink
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 18:37
Quote: "...I can see it happening for things like documents (images, text, videos etc.) but not for programs. They need to run locally."


That all may be true right now, but 30 years ago people would have likely said the same thing about cloud computing as it is today. Technology advances so quickly these days. I'm not very old, but in the time I've been using a computer I have gone from a 28.8 dial-up modem to a 24mbps cable connection. I'm still on the low end of the spectrum where internet connection is concerned. Yeah, latency is different from download speed, but latency has decreased a lot as well in this time period. Perhaps not as drastically as connection speed. What I'm getting at, though, is 30 years from now, computing power will be astronomically greater than it is now. We will likely see a unified, censored, patrolled, and controlled internet in the future. In just this past year alone we've seen numerous attacks on the internet as a whole. This last great medium of truly free speech is only in it's infancy, but it's final days are quickly approaching. It will be accepted with open arms. Ignorant people will be glad for the security, ease of use, and peace of mind, but really it will end up silencing the world. No doubt, we'll see pirate networks spring up. Eventually this will also be a crime. The users and administrators will likely be labeled cyber-terrorists and be arrested as criminals and the networks will be shut down. Cloud computing, where privacy isn't a concern, is great, don't get me wrong, but it is opening a door.

http://lossofanonymity.wordpress.com
Travis Gatlin
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 18:37
I'll stick to my PC.

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You can find my latest work here. Please comment on my work and tell me what you think!
TheComet
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 19:14
I don't like the idea of not physically keeping my data.

TheComet

Nateholio
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 20:24 Edited at: 5th Jul 2012 20:26
Quote: "I wonder how they possibly could..."

They'll get the stuff on your PC if they want it bad enough, especially with so many people using wireless routers these days. Still not safe with a wired network unless your cable, connectors both plug and socket, &&c are shielded. One could also do some Van Eck phreaking, among other things.
Other than that, comm is easily intercepted at sites around the world.

Quote: "Simple, they'll use the guise of anti-piracy and simply stop publishing locally-installable stuff"

I could see this happening with all the corporatism that exists. Companies lobby gov't to do something and gov't happily goes along with it.
But others also hit the nail on the head with latency and other issues with running remote software.

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Keep your Hope and Change, I choose individual Liberty!
Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 20:27
Currently we are reaching the limits of what hardware can do, as far as speed goes. The only option to make internet faster is to build more connections, and with the number of people using internet increasing exponentially, I don't really see this happening. :/
Aaron Miller
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 20:58 Edited at: 5th Jul 2012 21:25
Quote: "Currently we are reaching the limits of what hardware can do, as far as speed goes."

Are you referring to clock speed specifically? I find it more important to increase the number of cores supported. I, personally, wouldn't mind a 32-core system being available to consumers for fairly cheap in the near future... Plus, GPGPU is (IMO) useful for certain types of calculations. A lot of people are dismissive of it because they believe it can only be used for ocean rendering and stuff, but I doubt they've actively researched it. But, now with no one caring about desktops, we're just mashing together old tech in new portable devices. "OMG! This phone has FOUR CORES and runs at ONE WHOLE GHZ! Life: Complete." As someone who prefers PCs to mobile devices, that annoys me. (Also, I can't stand using "smart-phones" for actually making phone calls. Their battery life is too short. So, I have a cheap-o phone that actually works for calling. I have a smart phone for playing and random WiFi access.)

Cheers,
Aaron

You told me I'm the only one. Sweet little angel, you should have run.
Dark Java Dude 64
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 21:01
Well, kinda, I was mainly referring to internet connections speeds. The routers that run the internet connections are reach the limits of their power, and the speed as which a wire can carry information is also reaching its limits now. This requires more connections to be made, but that will have to happen at such a high rate I'm not sure it ever will happen!
Nateholio
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 21:13
Quote: "But, now with no one caring about desktops, we're just mashing together old tech in new portable devices. "OMG! This phone has FOUR CORES and runs at ONE WHOLE GHZ! Life: Complete." As someone who prefers PCs to mobile devices, that annoys me. (Also, I can't stand using "smart-phones" for actually making phone calls. They're battery life is too short. So, I have a cheap-o phone that actually works for calling."

Agreed!

In Development: K96 - Combat Simulation
Keep your Hope and Change, I choose individual Liberty!
nonZero
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 22:47
Wow, everyone's been making some really good arguments. I love speculating on this type on stuff. Seems that we can safely say it's feasible within the next 20 - 30 years. The likelihood of each factor or "plot device" is still debatable, as are the consequences but I must say even the least malevolent scenario is looking bleak. At the very least we're looking at a future in which it's very hard to remain disconnected and equally hard to build one's own PC (Think how much the industry stands to profit if you couldn't just upgrade the video card but had to buy a new machine to play Need For Speed 99).

I suppose it's a natural evolution and the way it's going I'll prolly get left behind eventually as systems become more uncompromising and internet-dependent. I guess if it gets to that extreme, I can always go back to a pen and a notebook (as in 192 pages bound with pressed cardboard). I wrote a couple of short stories in one (actually three coz I kept tearing pages out to rewrite them - no highlight and delete functionality them paper-things) with a stainless steel pen I got for my 18/19th (don't recall which) birthday and I'll be honest it felt good writing with that pen. Still does.

Maybe we'll end up in that futuristic science ?fiction? dystopia and the TGC forums will be the birthplace of a group of rebels. We'll combine our knowledge, coffee, 2-minute noodles and Mars bars to fight injustice while donning Star Wars t-shirts as our std::uniform.

Aaron Miller
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 22:59
Quote: "I suppose it's a natural evolution and the way it's going I'll prolly get left behind eventually as systems become more uncompromising and internet-dependent. I guess if it gets to that extreme, I can always go back to a pen and a notebook (as in 192 pages bound with pressed cardboard). I wrote a couple of short stories in one (actually three coz I kept tearing pages out to rewrite them - no highlight and delete functionality them paper-things) with a stainless steel pen I got for my 18/19th (don't recall which) birthday and I'll be honest it felt good writing with that pen. Still does."

I have seven notebooks, each completely filled with code, ideas, stories, software designs, drawings, math, optimized math routines, mathematical identities, notes, logic gates/circuitry, etc. Each one is dated, titled, and there are page numbers. And that's just from the year 2010 going forward. (Prior to 2010 I wasn't nearly as organized, but I still wrote ideas in notebooks.) Though, I started doing this not because of a dystopian future, but because internet connections suck and I'd usually be without internet for weeks/months.

Cheers,
Aaron

You told me I'm the only one. Sweet little angel, you should have run.
DeadTomGC
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Posted: 5th Jul 2012 23:28
Ya, I have bigger concerns about windows 8 than I have about this. Besides, if that happens, I have a backup plan.


nonZero
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Posted: 6th Jul 2012 00:14 Edited at: 6th Jul 2012 00:22
Quote: "I have a backup plan"






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Aaron Miller
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Posted: 6th Jul 2012 00:47
That's beautiful. 'cept for the chair. And carpet.

Cheers,
Aaron

You told me I'm the only one. Sweet little angel, you should have run.
Agent Dink
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 00:32 Edited at: 7th Jul 2012 00:32
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/the-pauls-new-crusade-internet-freedom <- Relevant. That's my boy, Ron Paul!

http://lossofanonymity.wordpress.com
Aaron Miller
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 02:36
Agreed!

Cheers,
Aaron

Dar13
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 03:27
Quote: "http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/the-pauls-new-crusade-internet-freedom <- Relevant. That's my boy, Ron Paul!"

Too bad he's going to fight against Net Neutrality so that your ISP can become gatekeepers that decide what data can pass through and what cannot without any governmental oversight.

Otherwise, good job Mr. Paul.

TheComet
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 07:34
Nateholio
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 09:29
Agent Dink, Dr. Paul is my man too.

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Keep your Hope and Change, I choose individual Liberty!
mr Handy
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 09:49
Nice chair! I want it.

«It's the Pony, pony me this, pony me that» — Bronies
«I sell apples and apple accessories» — Applejack
Derpy delivers: watch?v=g4Kgz4Us_RI
nonZero
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 10:08
Quote: "That's my boy, Ron Paul!"

Two thumbs up! This is a good start

Agent Dink
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 10:18
I am so glad we've got some Ron Paul peeps on here! You guys own.

http://lossofanonymity.wordpress.com
Nateholio
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 10:22 Edited at: 7th Jul 2012 10:27
Quote: "I am so glad we've got some Ron Paul peeps on here!"

It's not so much about the man himself as it is his positions on issues and his record. Problem with many of his supporters is that they're loons about the man. You also get the pea brains that support him only because he wants to decriminalize drugs at the federal level. Ask them about anything else and they're clueless. Exactly like this woman...



If Romney or Obama held the same positions and record as Dr. Paul I'd be supporting them too.

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Keep your Hope and Change, I choose individual Liberty!
Aaron Miller
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 11:33 Edited at: 7th Jul 2012 11:34
Quote: "Aaron Miller, is that a pokemon?"

I discovered, after finding the image, that it is! However, I do not like the show (or watch it) or anything like that. I just thought the image was cool. I think it's befitting of my personality too, in a way. (At least, the way I'm viewing it, lol.)

Quote: "If Romney or Obama held the same positions and record as Dr. Paul I'd be supporting them too."

I saw a video of Romney ignoring a guy in a wheelchair, then ignoring a reporter once he realized the reporter was asking why he was ignoring the guy in the wheelchair... I'm not sure that's the right face I would want for this country.

We should probably stop talking about politics unless we all want to get n00b-slapped, and the thread locked.

(Am I the only one who thinks 6[/i]9-[i]| should be something like :<_<:, in terms of "markup?")

Cheers,
Aaron

Nateholio
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 11:48
Quote: "We should probably stop talking about politics unless we all want to get n00b-slapped, and the thread locked."

Indeed.

I don't think I'd care much for apps and whatnot to be located "in the cloud". Maybe it's because I grew up with apps installed on my machines. Maybe it's because I don't like the idea of a company or gov't being able to cut off my access if they deem it necessary. The next step I'd see is that you have to pay a monthly fee to use an app rather than just paying the $200 or whatever up-front and not owing the company anything after that. In fact, I don't particularly care for the whole "cloud" notion. It's has its uses, but none of them appeal to me save for project coordination using Atlassian Confluence. But even then, all the documents are sourced locally on my team's computers and uploaded for informational/coordination purposes.

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Keep your Hope and Change, I choose individual Liberty!
Aaron Miller
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Posted: 7th Jul 2012 12:42
Quote: "Maybe it's because I don't like the idea of a company or gov't being able to cut off my access if they deem it necessary."

Yeah, I definitely agree with that. I've heard of companies like EA not letting you play games you own if you violate forum rules. I don't think that's right at all; a total abuse of "rights" management. Personally, I think it's bad enough you have to be connected to the internet every time you want to play (or install) a game. (I'm referring to Steam; I haven't been able to get their offline cache thing to work for my laptop.)

As for "Cloud" stuff, I agree with syncing between computers (but only the files you choose to). e.g., sync your music/videos/non-sensitive documents. I use version control and bitbucket.org for my source documents, and text files, and guitar tabs. But for things like the gigabytes of models and textures (mostly public domain! woo!) I have, I think I'd rather just make a private server than use a cloud service. I'm pretty sure there are network-storage-only computers (can't remember what acronym was used; NAS?) which can be used for just this purpose. Pretty cheap to build too. Or just nab one pre-built on newegg (or wherever).

Cheers,
Aaron

Agent Dink
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Posted: 8th Jul 2012 03:27
I hate relying on businesses or governments keeping the services available. This carries over into gaming too. Maybe I would like to play a co-op game of Halo 2 over Live. The game is now handicapped because there are no built in features for hosting my own server. Laaame.

http://lossofanonymity.wordpress.com
dab
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Joined: 22nd Sep 2004
Location: Your Temp Folder!
Posted: 8th Jul 2012 08:27
The whole "remote rendering" thing is already in play today. Due to our internet speeds, it isn't 100% acceptable, but it works well for those with speedy connections.

http://www.onlive.com/

You should see their servers. They developed a card to compress video, and their servers have GPUs in them. It is all very impressive.

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