Yup, I think the UAC conditions (which are really limitations) will pose a much greater problem for applications than any DirectX issues will. Applications get the wrong results when detecting, deleting, editing, and creating
their own data files with the forced-automated-redirection-to-a-user-folder 'fix' that Microsoft employed. The end result is, applications can't save what they need to because Vista tells the app the files exists in the program's folder, but it won't let it do anything to them, and then redirects to the user folder aren't updated because Vista doesn't auto-route file detection, it only auto-routes file edits and deletes. I can't even estimate how many applications I have that don't work on Vista because of this very problem.
For my DB stuff, I've had to completely re-write the data file saving/editing system to be compatible with Vista.