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Geek Culture / how fast will a computer be when your 100?

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indi
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 13:34 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 14:54
Here is a puzzle i was thinking about today.

If Moores law [is real] says that transistors double in amount every 18 months.
edited from original to get a better series of data

Can this be equated to saying that the speed doubles?

Here is the conundrum.
What is the algorithm to test this.

The current year is 2007
The current spec is 3000mhz to 4000mhz for public consumption.
Say our 0 year old infant starts today.

What is the Worlds fastest cpu speed compared to what we [1] can afford [2] is available to us.
Ive heard of 80mhz [edit GHZ] diamond wafer cpus used in mobile phone towers a few years ago.

Im finding it hard to find the fastest CPU to get the ball rolling.
Not factoring in the slower parts of the computer like hard drives etc..

Lets say we all live to the ripe old age of 100.

How fast will the computer be when your 100?
How did you determine the maths to confirm your results?
Id like to make it into a little flash module so we can plug in the data and see at a glance.

GatorHex
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 13:46
I don't think CPUs can get much faster due to the laws of physics.

There will need to be a change from copper cores to something radically new. We've reached the limits in terms of temprature and electrons jumping circuits.

What you will get is more CPUs in each box like we are seeing with core duo and quad. I think graphics cards are starting to run into a similar problem and I expect then to start offering cards which include AI and Physics onboard too.

In 100 years I recon we will have something like a Sun Sparc blade server where we can slot in more cpu blades, running in our bedrooms

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Phaelax
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 14:25
Quote: "Ive heard of 80mhz diamond wafer cpus used in mobile phone towers a few years ago."


Do you mean GHz? Few years back I heard of using diamonds to reach 80GHz.

I think the home PC in 100 years will be something most of us probably can't even think of just yet. I can say one thing for sure, and that is the future chip won't be silicon. There's been other studies with using bacteria for computer processing.

I think if we continued another 100 years with Moore's law, the computer would have to be quantum mechanical. How fast it would be? I dare not even try to answer. By that point in time we may no longer even being measure speed in terms of GHz at all. Even now, you can't judge the speed of a cpu by its clock cycles. 2GHz 64-bit will easily beat out 3GHz at 32bit (for the most part, when utilized properly). Maybe when I'm 100yrs old my computer will only be 5GHz but have a 32Gb bus.


indi
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 14:52 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 14:54
Having a brain fart with the moores law calculation. ( if it sticks to the plans )

I have not factored in any floats yet. What should the algorithm be?
Here is the action script i have so far, its all in the button




The FLA flash file is attached if anyone wants to have a crack at it.

EDit woops yes 80 GHZ, thanks mate for clearing that up.

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Josh
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 15:12
I don't think you can comprehend what will be here in 100 years time... Simply because in the last 30 years computers have gone from a handful world wide to everybody owning about a half dozen / dozen computers each. (e.g. computers, mobiles, games console, washing machine, etc)

Over the next 10 years we'll see almost every device we use becoming internet aware, and interconnecting. It's becoming more about what can we do with the technology, rather than how fast can we make it.

indi
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 15:17
Speed is important to me for some work, especially rendering and video editing, plus compile times.
Do you know the algorithm im looking for by chance Josh?

Kentaree
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 15:21
The algorithm should be something like

current speed * (2 ^ ((100-age) / 1.5 (year and a half)))

if my maths serves me (which it probably doesn't)

Josh
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 15:24 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 15:26
Increasing speed doesn't just have to be done in a linear fashion though. Google, for example, has thousands of computers which all take a small amount of the task. While each individual computer may be slow, when combined, they are much, much faster than any single computer. It can also be cheaper to process data in this way.

Therefore, the actual linear "speed" hasn't increased at all, but instead the data processing has been spread over two dimensions.


Quote: "Do you know the algorithm im looking for by chance Josh?"


Is this an algorithm which already exists, or are you trying to produce one?

indi
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 15:36
Josh, yeah im aware of that, Im about to link a dual 2500 to a quad dual core 3ghz systems with infini band.

Kentaree, thanks mate ill try that tomorrow night after work if someone doesnt beat me to it.

Kentaree
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 16:36
Josh
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 16:58 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 17:36
@ Kentaree:

That algorithm can't be correct, try putting in 3.58Mhz (speed of SNES ~15 years ago) and it comes up with 229.12Mhz. But computers are clearly much faster than that now, around ~3,600Mhz and its only been 15 years so far!

You need to find by how much your algorithm is wrong, and do some more tests on different numbers. There's a value x missing from it somewhere.

Josh
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 17:24 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 17:40
This shows that there is a missing value in Kentaree's algorithm, as it is inconsistant, but you can also see that the increases in speed every 5 years is inconsistant also. I chose consoles as they are meant to be the fastest personal computers available on release day.



[EDIT]The factor by which the speed increases between each generation of 5 years.

NES->SNES: Factor of 2
SNES->N64: Factor of 26.2
N64->Xbox: Factor of 7.8
Xbox->X360: Factor of 4.4

[EDIT2]As you can see the factor of speed increase every 5 years has in fact been decreasing over the last 10 years... Obviously we need much more data for this to be anywhere near accurate.

Josh
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 17:41
In fact you could argue for the X360 there are 3*3200 = 9600Mhz. Which makes the factor increase 13.1...

pr0tax
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 18:07
Damn the NES being 21 years, makes me feel old

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Josh
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 18:10 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 18:11
I found a value of 7.3. It seems to work for the NES and SNES values to give an accurate aprox. of our speeds today.

Using 7.3; NES gives 3,358.00Mhz and SNES gives 3,777.75Mhz as a prediction of our speeds now based on the speeds then. N64 gives 43,800.00Mhz which is obviously way off. Although the PS3 could potentially have a speed of 22,400.00Mhz so maybe its not so far off??

Who knows. I could be talking complete and utter crap! lol

SageTech
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 18:48
Te be honest, I doubt we'll be using anything close to what we use now in 100 years.


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David iz cool
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 19:01 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 19:03
i truely believe in about 5 years from now well be able to make games that can virtually store anything u can imagine.thus making every little minute detail available in your game,like insects,leaves,trash movable dirt ,whatever.because someone will probablly invent something that can quickly erase something not on screen but store it in some module or whatever that has near unlimited storage & is faster than like 100 billion mghz.
and we will all probablly have sort of air conditioning units in our hds to keep them cool all the time.+ pcs will probably become alot smaller and more compact.

but in 100 yrs i think if were still around.lol
pcs will be able to outthink us. lol
GatorHex
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 20:06 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 20:24
You cannot measure CPU speed in Ghz/Mhz it is better measured in FLOPs or MIPs because Ghz doesn't take into account different types of data width 16/32/64bit etc. or multiprocessing.

Example below of 6 differnt types of CPU all running at 1.3Ghz!!

Source: http://www.cpuid.com/reviews/PentiumM/index.php

The fastest at the mo. is the IBM BlueGene at 280.6 teraflop/s (trillion FLoating point Operations Per second, or Tflop/s).

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Seppuku Arts
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 21:06
Computer's won't exist when I'm 100, I would have succeeded in my plot in destroying the universe by then. I wish my maths wasn't so damn awful, I'd try to work this one out.

Did The Buddha have a Zen micro?
hessiess
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 22:52 Edited at: 15th Apr 2007 22:54
there was somthing on horison awile ago that sed computers will be the same power as the human brain in 25 years.

i dont like the way everything is moving at the moment. do you rilly want somone to no were you are all day, every day?

computers SHOULD NOT be in washing mashens,cars, or enething alse that can be dun better mecanicly. it makes it inposable to service these devices yourself. witch meens yet more mony going into repair bils, and yet more waste witch could have been esaly avoided. it should be compulsary that every person born lerns to service masinary themselvs. rebuld a mini or somthing to teach basic engenering, it would be alot better than the blue peter enganering thats dun in schools at the moment.

the way i see it is that the human race is going to have colapse becose of lack of scilled peple and bordem of never having enething to do.
i doubt that the human race will even exist in 100 years. thay are doing everything phisicly posable to destroy the planet.

sorry if i went abit off topic
Steve J
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 23:21
what the hell did you say? Im sorry if english isnt your first language, but if it is your first language....

pleading and needing and bleeding and breeding and feeding exceeding..where is everybody? trying and lying defying denying crying and dying..where is everybody?
hessiess
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 23:26
im deslexic. it takes to long to spell chec every single post, im on 3 forms. i guss i should have spell checed this one
Steve J
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Posted: 15th Apr 2007 23:32
ah, makes sense, sorry, its just hard to know sometimes.

pleading and needing and bleeding and breeding and feeding exceeding..where is everybody? trying and lying defying denying crying and dying..where is everybody?
Raven
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 04:04
Well something to note here is a) Moore was talking about computing power in relation to the number of transistors which appear to double every 18months.

If we assume that double the transistors = double the power (which point of fact it doesn't btw), while i could write the actual equasion it'd be pointless cause i doubt many here would understand. Instead the easier to read code ->



Also if you're going to actually bother figuring out the problem DO NOT use consoles as you're starting point, you have to use a chip that has been in existance for enough time to correlate the data.

SNES (68010), N64 (R4300), GameCube (PowerPC 4-Series), Wii (PowerPC 9-Series)

You could technically correlate between the GC and Wii, however given neither use the top-end processor of the generations current it would be impossible to really say yes or no.

Same goes by matching the console speed in 1991 (SNES) with the current top-end console 2007 (XBOX360) in terms of CPU performance.
As a) they're different chip generations and while yes, the 360 does have the current top-end PowerPC processor inside of it; the SNES was running at about a quarter of the performance of the top 68K it was based on because of keeping the thing cheap.

What you want to really follow is the performance of the Intel x86 processors up until 2005, prior to their Core processors were released. You will see that Moore's law although not totally accurate has been accurate enough.

The thing that gets tricky nowadays is that actual processor speed isn't increasing, in-fact for the most part it's decreasing. Transistors are still getting more on a single die due to smaller processing techniques (current is .65 nano), and what was dubbed by IBM (via Cyrix) about a decade ago the "Pentium-Rating" or PR as was written on the chips; and something that AMD still carryone with their numbering system. The number was suppose to represent the equivilant Pentium Mhz required to equal performance, although personally i think IBM never seemed to check past the Dhrystone performance; as their Cyrix processors were horrible with their Floating-Point performance.

The odd thing about Moore's law, is that it has never followed the "fastest" processor capable of being made; but that of the general market top-end. Not when it was made either, but when it hit the public sector itself.

a little freaky, but still cool.
in essence what he ment though is our computing power would jump 20x every decade... which really is true.

1980-1990 / 1.5MHz -> 30MHz
1990-2000 / 30Mhz -> 600MHz
2000-2010 / 600MHz -> 12GHz?

This doesn't have to mean literal power/performance.
Intel Pentium 4 Extreme 3.5GHz = Intel Core Single 2.1GHz = Intel Core 2 Duo 1.4GHz

So the visual performance of processors are dropping, however this doesn't mean the transistors or equivilant power is.
Right now processors are just about hitting the 5GHz equivilancy mark; with another 3years to go until the decade is up. Given how quickly performance is growing, it won't be surpring to see processors with the equivilant performance of 12GHz in computers. Even if it doesn't physically attain that performance.

Dazzag
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 10:49
Read something on the tech blogs a while back (6 months max) that said Intel reckoned they will be shifting away from more powerful processors, and more into multi-processors. They said something like by 2010 they see desktop PCs having 30 processors in them all running at 2-3Ghz, rather than a single processor running at 60Ghz. Should be interesting. Personally I want my phone to have at least a dozen processors running at least a Ghz each. Oh yes....

Cheers

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GatorHex
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 10:50
Argh stop trying to compare stuff in Ghz!!!

i can see I'm gona have to write another benchmark tool in DBP this time for FLOPs and MIPs

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indi
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 13:13
I shoulda just left it be, sorry

Lost in Thought
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 13:22
Thats absurd. There won't be any computers (PC's anyway) in 100 years. In about 37 years they will have perfected the artificial brain and we'll all have robot bodies like Ghost in the Shell. We will then be computers and no longer need them for personal use.

Mr Makealotofsmoke
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 13:58
i agree
and if we had PC still, it would probably be in TerraHZ and have like 10 cores or sumthing


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Benjamin
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 14:11
Quote: "In about 37 years they will have perfected the artificial brain and we'll all have robot bodies like Ghost in the Shell."

Let's hope so, so that at one point in life you will eventually get a brain.

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HowDo
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 14:49
Well what ever speed they get up to you can bet the OS will be just as big and just as slow.

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Phaelax
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 18:37
I like ghost in the shell, not too keen on the idea though. Hackers messing with my brain? We'd all have to walk around with aluminum hats(firewalls)!

Well technically, there's no point since the end of the world is in 2017. I forgot where I heard that but, over the past year, 2017 came up as doomsday twice from two different unrelated sources.


Seppuku Arts
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 18:46
They've been predicting the end of the world since the beginning of time my friend, it should have ended several times by now.

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Kentaree
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 18:49
I've got my computer set up to send me a message if the world ends

Phaelax
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 18:52
The question though is if your computer will still send the message if the end of the world is due to computers taking it over like ther Terminator


Diggsey
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 18:58
There won't be any computers larger than a few cm cubed, and glasses will come with computers built in. They will also contain gyroscopes and motion sensors, as well as a built in GPS, so that they can actually label things in your view. The mouse will no longer exist (except in museums) and you will select things by thinking and blinking. You will be able to see a person's full name, just by looking at them, and 3d graphics will render onto the glasses, and merge with the real world. Viruses will no longer delete stuff, but be 3d engines designed to render stuff thats fake to make you think its real. Using this, they will be able to make you do things. eg. They show a knife coming at you, and you duck.
Cores will come in packs of 100 and be 1mm cubed. Speed will be measured in how much slower it is than the maximum speed.
And pigs will fly.

Raven
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 19:34
I don't think playing games or working on word documents in some Microtronic-Neural system that a consciousness is moved to would really appeal to me.

Nor would most of the worlds population be able to afford such a radical change. We will always need something tangable to utilise.

Honestly I reckon we'll always have computers and not things that are implanted because while there are small groups who look forward to a "bionics" and "genetics" age, think you'll probably find more people wouldn't trust technology to that level.

Look at cars as an example, sure they now come with on-board computers that regulate many aspects; but for aspects that directly affect the cars control they can be turned off because people don't like loosing the control they have (even if in most cases that control is small and illusionary). They like to feel they control the technology not the other way around.

With all of these doomsday things lingering constantly about clones, artificial intelligence, genetics and bionics. It would be safe to assume that by-and-large people will always have something external even if it does mean having a "desktop" that fits in your pocket and projects a keyboard and display in 3D anywhere you go.

If anything i think that is more the future for computers, not for us to be integrated but in-fact for them to become less detectable in our livestyles.

I mean think about it, we have the technology for iris-lock, maganetic auto-open doors that wouldn't require any keys. Yet how many people here still have a traditional door with a metal key lock? Same with cars there are a few that are "keyless" which is nice, but majority of them still use a standard metal key system.

Sometimes the advancement of technology doesn't have to mean "we must integrate this to everything", sometime the classic way of doing things is best. Hell printers aren't obsolete despite huge amounts of the world working exclusively digital in work environments, and I doubt they will be in my life time.

Technology will get smarter. Faster computers, and use up less and less space. As far as radically changing though, just isn't going to happen. Otherwise all notebooks by now would be like the IBM Eyepad, which has a keyboard that was simple to use from the forearm; could be worn all day and a display that was a transparent lcd eye-peice. Although the weight and battery power was a pain with them, mobile and bluetooth now make it something that makes perfect sense to have.. those were what a decade ago with no thought to returning.

Mobile phones have had voice activation for going on 6years and almost every new handset released has it. Only a handful of people use it over the keypad or touchscreen.

I honestly don't see any of these creepy post-apocolyptic futures, anytime soon.
That said I'd love it if computers became like those seen on Chobits; would be cool to have a cute little computer that interacted with me. That said still don't see some more traditional tasks like design being changed in the foreseeable future.

For that there will need to be leaps and bounds in interaction as well as acceptance of such changes. The most likely (although personally i don't see it for another 50years atleast) is for full 3D computer display and interaction environments. Where you interact in a room with your computer in full 3D.. that's the most likely real change to the market.

I mean if computers haven't changed how you interact with them much in the last 25years since the invention of the mouse what makes you think that they will in the next 25years.
And before anyone notes about the Wii's control system, the PC has had a mouse that does what the Wii's controller does for about a decade, it never really took off. Just made your wrist ache.
We need something solid to interact with in order for it to not be too exhausting to use for short periods of time.

We also have to think of user safety. At the end of the day you can shut down a PC and restart from scratch if everything goes wrong. It wouldn't be so simple if that technology was actually part of you.

zzz
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 19:40 Edited at: 16th Apr 2007 19:46
100 years from now, you´ll be able to connect tires to four (or probably more) super-strong harddrives thus transforming the computer into a vehicle once and for all!

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Seppuku Arts
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 20:54
Well they made a few Mac Minis drive a car, so we're not far off from our computers driving us up the wall (Literally) Also, if we had computer cars, wouldn't they crash a lot?

Did The Buddha have a Zen micro?
hessiess
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 20:59 Edited at: 16th Apr 2007 21:01
i am the cind of purson who likes complete control over everything i do, so i rilly do not like the idea of computers being intagrated into everything the world is getting boring.

computers are good how thay are now.
Seppuku Arts
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 21:06
Boring? Lazy more like, I don't think computer driven cars as a common technology won't be around for a long time, if they do it, I'm sure the technology isn't safe enough yet.

Did The Buddha have a Zen micro?
zzz
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 21:23 Edited at: 16th Apr 2007 21:24
It´s scary to think that more and more equipment get "computerized".
Just think if you had a car with wi-fi and a hacker got
into it´s system and made you crash into a house or something.
Or an internet-controlled surgery robot...
I´m exaggerating, but you never know.

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hessiess
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 21:59 Edited at: 16th Apr 2007 22:02
all mobile phones should be burnt, do you rilly want eneyone to know exactly were you are,i can think of a huge nomber of resans why there completly usless. wireless tecnolagy is unreliable, im on a wilass network at home and it dies quite regulaly for absolutly no resen.
i was going to go into enganering, but ive completly droped this becose everything is done by computer controled masheens. witch removes all the scill nesesery. now im thinking about 3dcg, but is there even any point lerning this if computers will be able to do it themselvs

sorry, im going abit off topic
SageTech
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 23:38
Quote: "Also, if we had computer cars, wouldn't they crash a lot?"


Only if they are running windows ME.


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NeX the Fairly Fast Ferret
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 23:40
And all of the cars would be slow and colourful if the cars were running Vista. And they'd need the new nRoadia 8800 Road System to work properly.


Since the other one was scaring you guys so much...
Osiris
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Posted: 16th Apr 2007 23:46
Car car thing is true, a stretch of road has magnets in it and the computers track it, thus driving you.

Quote: "Or an internet-controlled surgery robot..."

There is one where I live, in the mayo clinic if im not mistaken, its called Da Vinci, they haven't used it really yet, but a doctor in New York can operate on someone here.

Your signature has been erased by a mod because it's larger than 600x120....
QuothTheRaven
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Posted: 17th Apr 2007 03:40
Development has always been a tad under what Moore predicted, and progress is also slowing down. It never actually fully dubbles.

Peter H
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Posted: 17th Apr 2007 03:42
in 100 years... (minus my age)

i won't care what computers can do.

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Location: The Fifth Plane of Oblivion
Posted: 17th Apr 2007 18:32
I'll probably be dead by then, too. So unless someone installs computers into graves, I would not be able to care if I wanted to.


Since the other one was scaring you guys so much...
Dazzag
22
Years of Service
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Joined: 26th Aug 2002
Location: Cyprus
Posted: 18th Apr 2007 09:32
Quote: "I'll probably be dead by then, too. So unless someone installs computers into graves, I would not be able to care if I wanted to."
Um, and if they do install into your grave then how exactly would you care? I mean, erm, it's not exactly as if otherwise you would be there twiddling your fingers and wishing you had a GBA. Fun for the worms if they evolved enough intellect to play Halo I guess...

Cheers

I am 99% probably lying in bed right now... so don't blame me for crappy typing
Current fave quote : "She was like a candle in the wind.... unreliable...."

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