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Geek Culture / Newcomb's Paradox

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aluseus GOD
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Joined: 19th Mar 2007
Location: I\'m here. Now I\'m there. I keep moving
Posted: 30th Dec 2007 03:15
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This is one of the most ______ paradoxes I've ever seen, here goes.


There are two cups, cup A and cup B.
cup A has a 1000 dollars
cup B has either nothing or 1 million dollars

You can do
1. Take cup B
2. Take both cups

Now, before booing me off the stage for this being the worst paradox ever, here's the second part.

A super powerful being has predicted what you will do with near perfect accuracy, possibly 99.99%.

If he thinks you will pick just cup B, he has put in cup B 1 million dollars.
If he thinks you will pick both cups, he has put in cup B nothing.

Do you pick cup B or both cups?

Argument 1:

He has almost certainly predicted you're choice, if you choose both cups, he probably predicted that. If you choose cup B, he probably predicted that. So by picking just cup B, he has almost certainly predicted this and cup B almost certainly has 1 million dollars.

Argument 2:

On the other hand, you can't prove he's correct, so by purely deductive logic, you should pick both cups. He can't change what is in the cups after all.

I HAVE a conclusion, but I won't share it yet

alus.portbb.com go there.
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Mr Tank
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 03:28
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Just B.

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PresFox
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 09:30
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Same here, for 99,99% chance, ill take a shot

Microsoft isnt evil, they just make really crappy operating systems -- Linus torvalds
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Agent Dink
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 10:53
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To me it sounds like cup B with a 99.99% chance of being a 1 mil payoff is a good bet, but you will probably strike us with something clever later.

MISoft Studios - Silver-Dawn

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Insert Name Here
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Location: Worcester, England
Posted: 30th Dec 2007 13:20
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B, as long as everything you have said is true. %99.9 chance will do for me.


Sudoku arts, the rabi and Nancy DrewG
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Insert Name Here
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 13:34
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This was on Wikipedia a while ago, Aluseus, I beleive.
(Goes off to look)


Sudoku arts, the rabi and Nancy DrewG
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Mr Tank
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 15:54
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Just to check, the supreme being does know that you know about it choosing what to put in cup B, based on it's predictions of your choice, right?

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Peter H
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 16:09
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Quote: "Just to check, the supreme being does know that you know about it choosing what to put in cup B, based on it's predictions of your choice, right?"

it doesn't matter what it knows... unless he lied to us, it has a 99.99% chance of being correct.

the best choice is only B

One man, one lawnmower, plenty of angry groundhogs.
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Insert Name Here
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 19:23
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Quote: "But that also means that you would have changed your initial decision,"
#Why does it mean this? Surely you would have looked out to pick cup B all the time?


Sudoku arts, the rabi and Nancy DrewG
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Libervurto
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 20:06
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This isn't a paradox
choose cup A = you get £1000 (pounds are worth more )
choose both cups = you get £1000 (cup B is empty)
choose cup B = you get £1,000,000

the only way you can lose out is the off-chance that this GOD thinks you are choosing both cups (B will be empty).
Let's say we are always going to pick cup B, what could the GOD do?
Guess that you are picking cup B = You get £1m
guess that you are picking cup A = You get £1m
guess that you are picking both cups = you get nothing!

even if the god was randomly guessing you would still be best to pick cup B

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Insert Name Here
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 21:53
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I still don't get it, you DO know that he thinks you're going to pick cup B just so long as you want B from the beginning.


Sudoku arts, the rabi and Nancy DrewG
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Peter H
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 21:57
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it doesn't matter how many times you changed your mind, that was never stated in the initial presentation of the problem... all i see is that
Quote: "A super powerful being has predicted what you will do with near perfect accuracy, possibly 99.99%."

obviously what you will do includes how many times you change your mind...

just as long as in the end you choose "only B" he will have predicted it with 99.99% accuracy.

One man, one lawnmower, plenty of angry groundhogs.
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SirFire
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 21:58
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I choose option #3: Kidnap the super powerful being and force him to give you billions.

Also, I will force him to fill the cups with beer.

_____________________
Windows Vista: Just say no.
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Fallout
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Posted: 30th Dec 2007 22:06
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Personally, I don't see how this can be a valid paradox/riddle. As soon as you involve something like "a supreme being" you can no longer employ any sort of logic to work it out. By adding something that doesn't obey our known laws, anything goes. What has changing your decision got to do with anything? Surely if he's a supreme being and he's made a prediction, it doesn't matter when you make your decision? All his predictions are based on your initial decision, your decision after you hear the information, the future, the past, your shoe size, etc etc. He's a supreme being!


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